Abstract

The persistent global infrastructure financing gap has intensified the search for innovative mechanisms capable of mobilizing new and diversified sources of capital. Blockchain based tokenization has recently emerged as a promising approach that can enhance transparency, liquidity, fractional ownership, and accessibility in infrastructure investment markets. This study explores the future of infrastructure financing through blockchain tokenization using an integrated foresight framework combining the Delphi method, MICMAC structural analysis, and scenario development.

Based on a systematic literature review and expert consultation, 23 key drivers were identified across four PEST dimensions: political–legal, economic, socio cultural, and technological. A three round Delphi survey involving 13 experts from academia and industry was conducted to evaluate the influence and importance of these drivers. The results show that standardized smart contracts and social participation are among the most influential factors shaping the future of tokenized infrastructure finance. MICMAC analysis further identified nine key driving variables with high influence on system dynamics.

These drivers were subsequently used to construct twelve plausible future scenarios using Scenario Wizard. The most desirable scenario highlights a future characterized by clear regulatory frameworks, robust digital infrastructure, ESG integration, and the widespread adoption of standardized smart contracts, enabling transparent, scalable, and inclusive infrastructure financing through tokenization. Overall, the findings demonstrate that blockchain based tokenization can substantially improve efficiency, transparency, liquidity, and governance in infrastructure finance, provided that supportive regulatory, technological, and institutional frameworks are established.